Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
