A mere 60 days in the past that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the England international swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
